A Financial Crisis Manual: Reflections and the Road Ahead by Dimitrios D. Thomakos, Platon Monokroussos, Konstantinos I.

By Dimitrios D. Thomakos, Platon Monokroussos, Konstantinos I. Nikolopoulos

This booklet offers an intensive review of the hot monetary obstacle from the viewpoint of either practitioners and lecturers specialising within the area.

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In turn, that brings to the fore the longstanding issue of capital account management, with all that this means in terms of socioeconomic and political friction between major economies around the world, as well as their respective central banks. The required relative adjustment may also very likely generate a need for permanent fiat demand generation via the monetary avenue in order to keep inflation at acceptable levels and avoid a slide into a long-lasting deflationary spiral. As a result, the maladies of the global economy have metamorphosed from acute to chronic, within a low nominal growth environment.

In Japan, Abenomics could backfire in a number of ways: for example, currency weakness that hurts domestic household purchasing power and growth while also exporting deflation to the rest of the world, particularly China and the United States. In emerging markets, continued weakness in major economies such as Russia and Brazil will subtract further from global aggregate demand, while clearly underinvesting at home. In Europe, the euro area is facing a real danger of “hysteresis”, with unemployment at all-time highs and firms reluctant to invest.

Financially weaker countries were quickly shut out from markets, receiving financing from the euro area and the IMF, but only in return for strict implementation of economic adjustment programs. With excessive focus on nominal deficit targets (rather than structural) in deficit countries, and an absence of counter-cyclical fiscal policies in surplus countries, the average fiscal stance of the euro area became clearly restrictive: structural balances improved by about 3% of GDP between 2011 and 2013.

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A Financial Crisis Manual: Reflections and the Road Ahead by Dimitrios D. Thomakos, Platon Monokroussos, Konstantinos I.
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